Afghanistan

Afghanistan : it needs and deserves time.

It is the talk of the day and it is in Asia. I never went there, you shouldnt’be afraid of danger and it’s been that way for a long time.

A friend stayed some time in Afghanistan in the 70’s of the XXth century, he would travel riding a horse, not driving an helicopter. I don’t think he spoke any language but its steed was enough : they would respect him because he did.

I don’t know if he is still alive or not but I always think of him when Afghanistan is the topic : the first condition is to respect Afghans.

But obviously it is not enough and fatalities as well as money spent in a 20 years war in Afghanistan examplifie it, as President Biden declared in his 30 August speech : 300 millions $ a day during 20 years, 2461 Amercian soldiers.

Still he didn’t speak about the 90 French and other nationalities, and spoke only of the war which followed al Qaeda’s attack on 2001 September 11 under Oussamas’ Bin Laden leadership. President Biden thought with many around the world it was high time to settle the score.

Now, if we look at the past, Afghanistan was at war or in armed peace except for a dozen years since the VIth Century BC : WWII imposed it to be neutral. And most of these wars were not civil wars, they were triggered by foreigners.

Oussama Bin Laden came from Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda may have Afghan accomplices but it is unlikely, most of the well known are from Sahel Africa or Northern Africa (Al Qaeda on Islamic Maghreb, AQMI).

The war is on-going in Afghanistan. Taleban have conquered power everywhere except in the Panjshir Valley. It was held bu Commander Masoud who was lilled two days before the 11 September attacks, maybe because he didin’t want it and his son, Commander Ahmad Masoud, is still resisting. The observers don’t think he can if he doesn’t receive foreign support.

Because if there is one item all Afghans agree on, that is to resist any foreign occupation.

It doesn’t mean we don’t care of what happenes to Afghans.

Let us again read President Biden’s speech : he quoted the evacuation of Afghans who helped the Americans and then mentioned the 300 000 Afghans who were trained and equiped during 20 years but thousands remained in the field and “ the people of Afghanistan watched their own government collapse, and the president flee, amid the corruption and malfeasance” ...

The US don’t lack means to pressure the taleban government or the one which will follow to get conformity to commitments which were taken – let the foreigners who wish it to leave and as well for Afghans.

What Afghans ? Those of Kabul, when they took a Western way of life or collaborated with the former regime will no doubt want to leave. Some families are in Mazâr e Charîf, understandingly looking for a way to leave the country.

Some countries like South Korea, are maybe preparing the future to let a few hundreds of Afghans stay provided they trade a permit for an useful skill.

Those who were victims of the success of Viet Minh and parties which relied on its military efficiency (Pathet Lao and Khmers rouges) came back later, often because they were originally better educated but also because they gathered experience outside. Many of them love their homeland even while making a living in another country. They wouldn’t think of criticising the governement, foreigners do it.

The other Afghans, who live in the countryside and the mountains still lead the miserable life of farmers who pick the pavot which makes the fortune of warlords, before it ends in the streets of American or French cities. Less dangerous, they also pick up rice, coffee and cocoa beans for traders who get their money from it.

How much time will it take for women to be at par with men ?

In the present Japanese government, they are 2 out of 21 ministers, including the woman minister in charge of the Olympic games eveybody thought very well organized. Another partner, the Governor of Tokyo, was known as speakin arabic, probably the only politician in Japan. And the third partner, the President of the National Olympic Committee, could become so instead of a former premier minister only after a long pressure from the public.

COMMENTS.

1 Whether we like it or not, it’s the speech of the American President that will be remembered.

2 Afghans are not only talebans. Let’s see if they let other powers to have a seat.

3 Let’s not ask Afghans and moreover Afghan women to immediataly reach equality when a developed country like Japan is so far away from that objective and it has been reached by no other country, except those where law has required it.

4 Some try to make progess in non-discrimination. One example is given by Médecins sans frontères (Doctors without borders) which has its main Afghan operation not in Kabul but in Herat, linked to Tadjikistan ; other NGOs do the same. Probably French AFD and Japanese JICA will come again, when the most bloody times are over.

The US spent, according to the OECD, 6 billion USD in ODA in 2019, not much when compared to the military costs but enough to press on the aghan government to live by its committments.

5 Because there was blood and more will probably follow.

Afghanistan is through a purge after a 20 years occupation, whereas France has known a purge with about 9000 fatalities after a 2 to 3 years war against its Eastern neighbour. Blood has been spilled and there is no excuse for that, but let’s look at the horror in a perspective.

6 Does it have to be reminded, the Western fiasco plays in the hands of Russia and mostly Xi Jinping and that is the greatest danger.

My bet is that when foreigners will be gone, Afghanistan will find the way to have a less chaotic mangement than the one we have seen. Let’s give it the time.